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Predictions: Who Will and Should Win?

1998 was a strange year, but the Oscars are even stranger. For the first time in years, I have absolutely no clue as to the outcome of the categories. In reality, any of the nominees could win, and it's difficult to distinguish. However, being the day of the Oscars, I feel that I should tell what my opinion is for each category.
Best Picture
  • Elizabeth
  • Life is Beautiful
  • Saving Private Ryan
  • Shakespeare in Love
  • The Thin Red Line

    Who will win? Saving Private Ryan
    Who should win? The Thin Red Line

    While Shakespeare in Love has gained prestige lately, Spielberg's war film is undeniably the leader here. After winning numerous awards, it is almost a certainty that Saving Private Ryan be the big winner. It's a shame, since the best of these nominated is Malick's The Thin Red Line. Of course, that film has about as much a chance as Elizabeth. As for Roberto Benigni's film... it'll win "Best Foreign Film" and that's probably it.

    Best Director
  • Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful
  • Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
  • John Madden, Shakespeare in Love
  • Terrence Malick, The Thin Red Line
  • Peter Weir, The Truman Show

    Who will win? Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan
    Who should win? Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan

    While I'm an avid fan of Terrence Malick's The Thin Red Line, I do believe that Spielberg did the better job directing. After all, his graphic depiction of war was startlingly brutal, whereas Malick was startlingly prolific. I had a difficult time picking who I thought should win, but I have to go with the guy who will win. This may be the easiest category to pick from.

    Best Actor
  • Robert Benigni, Life is Beautiful
  • Tom Hanks, Saving Private Ryan
  • Ian McKellen, Gods and Monsters
  • Nick Nolte, Affliction
  • Edward Norton, American History X

    Who will win? Ian McKellen, Gods and Monsters
    Who should win? Edward Norton, American History X

    Okay, this is rather unfair. I have yet to see either Affliction or Gods and Monsters which nullifies my opinion. From what I have seen, Norton is the frontrunner, giving a shocking and powerful performance as a skinhead with childhood abuse problems. Many say Tom Hanks, but really... three in one decade? That's pushing it. Benigni has a shot, but I doubt the Academy would be willing to go with him on this category. If they don't award it to him for "Best Foreign Language Film," prepare for Academy backlash.

    Best Actress
  • Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth
  • Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station
  • Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
  • Meryl Streep, One True Thing
  • Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie

    Who will win? Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
    Who should win? Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie

    It is a virtual tie between Gwyneth Paltrow and Cate Blanchett in many people's opinions--either could get it, and no one would be surprised. Of the two, Blanchett gave the more poignant performance, as well as the most impressive. However, it is Hilary and Jackie's Emily Watson who gave the best performance here. It's a shame no one saw the film. That will probably be her only handicap. As for Montenegro, again, the Academy won't go for a foreign language actress. Meryl Streep? She has a chance, but it is very slight. She's won several times (God knows she deserved them too) and as with Tom Hanks, it is doubtful the Academy will award her another one.

    Best Supporting Actor
  • James Coburn, Affliction
  • Robert Duvall, A Civil Action
  • Ed Harris, The Truman Show
  • Geoffrey Rush, Shakespeare in Love
  • Billy Bob Thornton, A Simple Plan

    Who will win? James Coburn, Affliction
    Who should win? Robert Duvall, A Civil Action

    This may be the most difficult category to select from. It's full of great performances. We can discredit Ed Harris' performance for the most part, since The Truman Show was virtually snubbed in every category. James Coburn has been receiving a lot of praise for his performance. Billy Bob Thornton could get the win, but he's won before for a similar performance. Geoffrey Rush has received mixed opinions, some saying he was great, others saying he was poor. I'm going with the latter. So it is down to Robert Duvall and James Coburn. I've only seen Duvall's performance, but Coburn seems to have so much going for him that he may just win. Duvall could get the upset if the Academy voters feel sorry for ignoring his performance last year (for which Nicholson beat him, somehow).

    Best Supporting Actress
  • Kathy Bates, Primary Colors
  • Brenda Blethyn, Little Voice
  • Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love
  • Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jackie
  • Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsters

    Who will win? Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love
    Who should win? Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jackie

    Sure, Judi Dench was powerful as Queen Elizabeth in Shakespeare in Love, but she only had nine minutes on screen. In my opinion, that's not very supporting. Kathy Bates was terrific in Primary Colors but the Academy would probably rather give it to someone who hasn't won before. Lynn Redgrave could win, but her chances are slim. Brenda Blethyn has virtually no chance to win. Rachel Griffiths, co-starring in the little seen Hilary and Jackie, was very powerful, giving a wonderfully underplayed performance that matched Emily Watson's during every minute. Watson's was more showy, but Griffiths' was more haunting.

    Best Original Screenplay
  • Bulworth, Warren Beatty and Jeremy Pikser
  • Life is Beautiful, Vincenzo Cerami and Roberto Benigni
  • Saving Private Ryan, Robert Rodat
  • Shakespeare in Love, Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard
  • The Truman Show, Andrew Niccol

    Who will win? Marc Norman and Tom Stoppard, Shakespeare in Love
    Who should win? Andrew Niccol, The Truman Show

    This is hard... I am a big fan of both Shakespeare in Love and The Truman Show, and think their screenplays are the best aspect of each. The Truman Show, however, was more original and more exciting, creating a character drama of surprising depth. Shakespeare in Love was powerful in its own right, exuding charm with every single line of dialogue. Bulworth was also great, but it was released too early this year. It looks doubtful for that film. Life is Beautiful may get an upset here and take the award, but it looks doubtful as well. Saving Private Ryan is the weakest of the group here, surprisingly. Look for the Bard to win here.

    Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Gods and Monsters, Bill Condon
  • Out of Sight, Scott Frank
  • Primary Colors, Elaine May
  • A Simple Plan, Scott B. Smith
  • The Thin Red Line, Terrence Malick

    Who will win? Terrence Malick, The Thin Red Line
    Who should win? Terrence Malick, The Thin Red Line

    This is also a difficult category. We can eliminate Elaine May's Primary Colors adaptation because it was released too early this year and didn't make much of an impression at the box office. Scott B. Smith's adaption of his own A Simple Plan is also good, but that film is more of an acting piece, not a writing piece. Bill Condon may come up with the upset, since Gods and Monsters is loved by many people. It comes down, then, to Terrence Malick and Scott Frank. Frank received Best Adapted Screenplay from the Online Film Critics Society, but I think the Academy will reward Malick for his 20-year return to filmmaking here.

    Best Foreign Film
  • Central Station, Brazil
  • Children of Heaven, Iran
  • The Grandfather, Spain
  • Life is Beautiful, Italy
  • Tango, Argentina

    Who will win? Life is Beautiful
    Who should win? Life is Beautiful

    Roberto Benigni will do something fanatical when he wins here, and that's why he will win. The Academy would never pass up the opportunity to watch Benigni freak out on stage at the ceremony. Central Station seems to be the only other contendor.

    Best Cinematography
  • A Civil Action
  • Elizabeth
  • Saving Private Ryan
  • Shakespeare in Love
  • The Thin Red Line

    Who will win? The Thin Red Line
    Who should win? The Thin Red Line

    Here, it's virtually a dead-even match between Spielberg's war film and Malick's war film. Unfortunately for Spielberg, Malick has him beaten here. Malick received the American Society of Cinematographers' award for Best Cinematography. And since it is those same people voting for the Oscar, look for him to win again (unless they go for Spielberg, which debunks my theory altogether). Spielberg has the advantage with moviegoers, and at the box office. Besides, the first twenty-five minutes of Saving Private Ryan are astonishing in their realism. A Civil Action contained brilliant camerawork, but it's the dark horse. Shakespeare in Love--well, I still don't know how it got nominated. As for Elizabeth, it's got no chance. It has too much against it.

    Best Film Editing
  • Life is Beautiful
  • Out of Sight
  • Saving Private Ryan
  • Shakespeare in Love
  • The Thin Red Line

    Who will win? Saving Private Ryan
    Who should win? The Thin Red Line

    This category has almost always matched up with the film that wins Best Picture. So, discredit Elizabeth from winning Best Picture here. Also, discredit Out of Sight from winning--it wasn't nominated for Best Picture. The two front runners here are surprisingly Saving Private Ryan and The Thin Red Line. If Shakespeare in Love wins Best Picture, this may be one of those few times when this category is different. Look for Spielberg to win here.

    Best Art Direction
  • Elizabeth
  • Pleasantville
  • Saving Private Ryan
  • Shakespeare in Love
  • What Dreams May Come

    Who will win? Shakespeare in Love
    Who should win? Pleasantville

    Elizabeth could win here, with its stunningly dark sets and atmospheric look (of course, with that in mind, Dark City should win). What Dreams May Come may come up with the upset here, with its gorgeous visuals. Of course, special effects helped there. Pleasantville is the best of the group here, but it was ignored by the Academy in almost every other category. Saving Private Ryan also could get it, but I'm guessing they'd rather give it to the Bard's film. So watch for Shakespeare in Love to get it here.

    Best Makeup
  • Elizabeth
  • Saving Private Ryan
  • Shakespeare in Love

    Who will win? Saving Private Ryan
    Who should win? Saving Private Ryan

    This is difficult too... would the Academy rather go for withered, old white people or prosthetic limbs being torn from the body? I'm going to go with my gut here, and say the Academy would prefer prosthetic limbs.

    Best Costume Design
  • Beloved
  • Elizabeth
  • Pleasantville
  • Shakespeare in Love
  • Velvet Goldmine

    Who will win? Shakespeare in Love
    Who should win? Shakespeare in Love

    Velvet Goldmine is fantastic in terms of costume design, but the film was little seen by anyone. Beloved, in its only nomination, could get it for its stunningly detailed costumes. Elizabeth is richly textured with gorgeous costumes. However, if the Academy wants to go for a period piece, they'll probably settle for Shakespeare in Love. Pleasantville, picked up for another nomination, has a chance, especially with the amount of detail that must have gone into the designing process. But it will be ignored once again. Look for another Bard award.

    Best Sound
  • Armageddon
  • The Mask of Zorro
  • Saving Private Ryan
  • Shakespeare in Love
  • The Thin Red Line

    Who will win? Saving Private Ryan
    Who should win? Saving Private Ryan

    Sure, The Mask of Zorro sounded great, but could it really compete with the horrifying sounds of bullets tearing through flesh of Saving Private Ryan? The only other nominee that seems possible for the upset would be Armageddon which overloaded the senses with sound. However, I'm betting that the Academy will go for the better film, which is definitely Saving Private Ryan? The Thin Red Line also is great in the sound aspect, but I'm guessing the Academy will select Saving Private Ryan.

    Best Sound Effects Editing
  • Armageddon
  • The Mask of Zorro
  • Saving Private Ryan

    Who will win? Saving Private Ryan
    Who should win? Saving Private Ryan
    See Best Sound category for my reasoning. They match up pretty well.

    Best Visual Effects
  • Armageddon
  • Mighty Joe Young
  • What Dreams May Come

    Who will win? What Dreams May Come
    Who should win? What Dreams May Come

    There is no Titanic this year, so what film is going to pick this one up? It could be either three, all featuring spectacular visual effects (none, however, better than Dark City). I'm guessing that What Dreams May Come will pick it up with its stunning images of hell and heaven. Mighty Joe Young may take the upset, with its fantastic images of the gorilla running through the forests.

    Best Original Score (Dramatic)
  • Elizabeth, David Hirschfelder
  • Life is Beautiful, Nicola Piovani
  • Pleasantville, Randy Newman
  • Saving Private Ryan, John Williams
  • The Thin Red Line, Hans Zimmer

    Who will win? Saving Private Ryan
    Who should win? The Thin Red Line

    Hans Zimmer's score for Malick's war film is so astonishing that it had me balling my eyes out during many sequences. Of course, if they do give an award to Zimmer, it'll be for The Prince of Egypt in the Musical or Comedy Score. Randy Newman may pick this award up, winner of the Online Film Critics Society's award. John Williams almost always gets a nomination every year... or it seems that way. And he wins quite often. He's won more Oscars than anyone in the history of the Oscars in any category. Of course, Nicola Piovani may just get this one for Life is Beautiful, since the Academy would love to award the film with another Oscar.

    Best Original Score (Musical or Comedy)
  • A Bug's Life, Randy Newman
  • Mulan, Matthew Wilder, David Zippel, and Jerry Goldsmith
  • Patch Adams, Marc Shaiman
  • The Prince of Egypt, Stephen Schwartz and Hans Zimmer
  • Shakespeare in Love, Stephen Warbeck

    Who will win? The Prince of Egypt, Stephen Schwartz and Hans Zimmer
    Who should win? The Prince of Egypt, Stephen Schwartz and Hans Zimmer

    Stephen Warbeck's score could pick up the award here, but I'm betting that the Academy will give it to Hans Zimmer and Stephen Schwartz for their work on this magical piece of animation. Warbeck could pick it up if the animation films cancel each other out. After all, there's no chance in hell that Marc Shaiman will get it (his score was shamelessly manipulative).

    Best Original Song
  • "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing" from Armageddon
  • "The Prayer" from Quest for Camelot
  • "A Soft Place to Fall" from The Horse Whisperer
  • "That'll Do" from Babe: Pig in the City
  • "When You Believe" from The Prince of Egypt

    Who will win? "When You Believe" from The Prince of Egypt
    Who should win? "When You Believe" from The Prince of Egypt

    The best song of the year, "Uninvited" by Alanis Morrisette, was not nominated, so look for the second best song of the year, The Prince of Egypt's "When You Believe" to pick this one up. Quest for Camelot won this award at the Golden Globes, but the Oscars will probably have better tastes. Of course, never give up hope on Armageddon... it may just nab this one.

    Best Animated Short Film
  • "Bunny"
  • "The Canterbury Tales"
  • "Jolly Roger"
  • "More"
  • "When Life Departs"

    Who will win? "More"
    Who should win? ???

    I haven't seen any of these, though I've heard that "More" is the frontrunner here.

    Best Live-Action Short Film
  • "Culture"
  • "Election Night (Valgaften)"
  • "Holiday Romance"
  • "La Carte Postale (The Postcard)"
  • "Victor"

    Who will win? ???
    Who should win? ???

    Beats me!

    Best Feature Documentary
  • Dancemaker
  • The Farm: Angola, U.S.A.
  • The Last Days
  • Lenny Bruce: Swear to Tell the Truth
  • Regret to Inform

    Who will win? The Last Days
    Who should win? The Last Days

    I don't know... but I've heard great things about The Last Days.

    Best Short-Subject Documentary
  • The Personals: Improvisations on Romance in the Golden Years
  • A Place in the Land
  • Sunrise Over Tiananmen Square

    Who will win? Sunrise Over Tiananmen Square
    Who should win? ???

    I don't know either.